U.S. solar capacity may outpace natural gas in 2027, research says
New data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has good news for the solar sector and renewable energy industry at large, according to research reviewer the SUN DAY Campaign.
With electrical generation growth of more than 10% through the first third of 2026, renewable energy — led by solar — accounted for about 30% of total U.S. generation in the same timeframe. Perhaps most promisingly, the research projects that with the inclusion of new small-scale solar projects, renewable energy capacity could surpass natural gas by early 2027 or sooner.
“The steadily accelerating march of solar, wind, and battery storage continues,” says Ken Bossong, executive director of the SUN DAY Campaign. “Trump seems to be having no more success in stopping the growth of renewable energy sources than he is having in repairing the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool.”
In April 2026, both solar and wind-generated power each outproduced coal in the U.S., say representatives from the Marylandian sustainability awareness organization. Utility-scale solar alone sits at the top of the renewables heap, having steadily overtaken wind power, according to the new research.
A promising 2027 and beyond
Renewable energy could add up to 56 GW of new capacity in the coming year, according to the SUN DAY Campaign. By comparison to solar and other renewables, coal capacity actually fell over the EIA’s year-long sample, moving down by about 3.5 GW. Nuclear power added just 18.4 MW, and natural gas capacity rose by about 7.8 GW.
Renewable, the SUN DAY Campaign says, has a much brighter future ahead of it when looking at the past year’s numbers.
Combined with wind and battery storage, utility-scale solar projects are expected to add more than 78.5 GW over the next calendar year, ending April 30, 2027. The SUN DAY Campaign says utility-scale solar alone increased by about 27.6 GW of capacity, from May 2025 to April 2026 alone. Small-scale solar backs that number up with a 6.5 GW increase in capacity alone.
“If small-scale solar does increase by approximately 6,000-MW by May 1, 2027, it will bring renewable energy’s installed capacity up to about 537,606.9-MW,” the SUN DAY Campaign says. “By comparison, natural gas’ generating capacity would total 515,744.9-MW. Solar power’s share alone would be more than one-fifth (20.1%) of total U.S. capacity.”
Battery energy storage system (BESS) products have been a hot topic in the renewable energy industry for the past year, and the data backs up their rise in the solar sector. The EIA’s research says battery storage is projected to increase by over 47% by next April, good for an jump of about 22.8 GW.
In total, utility-scale solar and BESS projects, combined with wind’s piece of the pie, could bring renewable capacity to close to 85 GW by 2027.
