Lux Research: Thin-film solar modules could challenge silicon in the coming years

The two leading thin-film solar manufacturers, First Solar and Solar Frontier, represent a combined manufacturing capacity of 4 GW. While they do not pose a short-term challenge to crystalline silicon players’ market dominance, ongoing innovations will ensure thin-film remains a significant player, according to Lux Research.

Of the two, First Solar is far bigger, with expertise in utility-scale systems and a new large-format module design that will help maintain its gigawatt-scale presence in utility-scale systems, as deployment grows in emerging markets. Solar Frontier has gradually diversified its business away from its home market of Japan and is making steps towards a rooftop building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) product.

“Both Solar Frontier and First Solar are moving forward to remain competitive with crystalline silicon. While First Solar will remain the thin-film leader, Solar Frontier has exhibited a willingness to form joint ventures to extend its scale,” said Tyler Ogden, Lux Research analyst and lead author of the report titled, “Tier-One Technology Tracker: Charting the Momentum of Thin-Film Leaders Solar Frontier and First Solar.”

Lux research thin film

Lux Research analysts compared Solar Frontier and First Solar, evaluating the two companies’ varied approaches, strengths and weaknesses. Among their findings:

• First Solar ahead on momentum. In Lux’s momentum analysis, First Solar had a score of 3.7, out of five, moving faster in technology progress and executing a competitive product strategy. Solar Frontier scored 2.9, moving adeptly into new markets through partnerships, while keeping pace in its financial position and manufacturing.

• Solar Frontier capitalizes on niches. Solar Frontier is taking steps toward a BIPV product, with preconfigured systems, flexibility and novel form factors. These are small differentiations in its current rooftop market, but can provide the groundwork for a larger BIPV industry with Solar Frontier at the helm, potentially a huge payoff.

• Challenges lie ahead for both. First Solar’s further growth hinges on plant-wide adoption of its Series 6 module and achieving systems costs below $1.00/W. Solar Frontier’s future rests on its ability to move its success in the lab to commercial production, and a partnership with a storage provider to integrate a lithium-ion battery option with its residential systems.

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