The solar roof market looks ready to heat up. Solar roofing is defined as those products that serve as a structure’s primary roofing material while also producing solar-generated electricity. A new Freedonia Group analysis projects that the expanding impact of solar-friendly policies and a growing number of available solar roofing solutions should drive rapid growth in the solar roofing market through 2025 — from <$50 million in 2020 to nearly $1 billion in 2025.
California stands out as the obvious leader here. California has mandated that nearly all new residential and commercial buildings in the state to include solar products starting in 2023. So yes, in spite of NEM 3.0 fallout, this will still be the case, which positions roofer-friendly solar solutions in a favorable spot. Similar mandates have been passed in cities such as San Francisco and South Miami, Florida.
In addition to significantly increasing solar roofing sales in the state, Freedonia Group believes the California mandates are expected to influence other states to pass legislation promoting solar installations. Environment America, the organization that helped drive the California mandates, plans to launch similar campaigns in 10 additional states in 2022.
The forecast also shows triple-digit demand growth in the South through 2025, when the region will surpass the Northeast as the second leading regional market for solar roofing after the West, accounting for 7% of sales. Freedonia points to the the growing availability of incentives in states – particularly Delaware, Maryland, Florida, and the Carolinas – as well as localities (e.g., Austin, Texas; New Orleans, Louisiana).
The market for solar roofing products in the US is forecast to increase rapidly to 716,000 squares, valued at $965 million in 2025. In addition to the expanding impact of solar-friendly policies nationwide, factors supporting long-term growth for solar roofing products as Freedonia sees it include:
- Rising awareness of the energy-efficiency benefits of solar roofing systems
- The attractive appearance of solar roofing compared to traditional solar arrays (e.g., solar roofing resembles traditional roofing materials)
- The growing availability, affordability, and accessibility of solar roofing products (e.g., Tesla expanded solar roof installations nationwide in 2021 and GAF debuted a new nailable solar roof shingle)
- expansion of local, state, and federal incentives (e.g., tax credits, net metering benefits, rebates) to install solar roofing products
Solar Roofing, now available from The Freedonia Group, presents historical data for 2020 and forecasts for 2025 and 2030 for US solar roofing demand in value, area, and roof-mount electricity generation (which includes both solar panels and solar roofing), and for regional demand in squares. The Freedonia Group, a division of MarketResearch.com, is an international industrial research company, providing its clients with product analyses, market forecasts, industry trends, and market share information.
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