Over 90 percent of solar modules produced in 2023 will be large format

global solar

High power wattage is the name of the game in the solar marketplace now, due to the combination of large-format panels and n-type technology. Independent energy research agency TrendForce estimates that large-format wafers, cells and modules will account for more than 90% of the total production capacity in 2023, and demand for large-format products will demonstrate strong growth.

The power of 182 mm n-type modules increases from 500W+ to 600W+, while the power of 210mm n-type modules exceeds 700W — and 210 mm modules will account for nearly 60% of total production capacity.

Figure: Market share of modules (Unit: %)

TrendForce module production forecast

Suppliers | The top six module manufacturers’ shipments in 2022 were around 205-211 GW, accounting for 76-78% of the annual module demand of 270 GW. Among them, LONGi, Trina Solar, and JinkoSolar all shipped more than 40GW.

Trendforce large format module chart

In 2022, shipments of large-format modules grew faster, accounting for more than 80% of total shipments. As of the first quarter of 2023, the cumulative shipments of 210mm modules had exceeded 120GW. Shipments of large-format modules will continue to rise as market demand and production capacity expand.

Wafers | TrendForce expects a faster increase in demand for large-format wafers in 2023, with its market share increasing rapidly from 83.45% in 2022 to 95.74%. In 2023, the production capacity for large-format wafers will hit 792.4GW, showing a stronger tendency toward larger formats, while 210mm wafer production capacity will hit 320.8GW, increasing by 74.6%, with a market share of 38.76%.

Figure: Capacity ratio for wafers of different sizes between 2022 and 2026 (Unit: %)

Trendforce large format

Cells | the capacity for large-format cells will reach 822.3GW in 2023, accounting for 94.99% of total capacity. 210mm cell capacity will reach 587.75GW, an increase of 83.7% from 2022, with a market share of 67.9%.

Modules | TrendForce anticipates a significant increase in production capacity for large-format modules in 2023, reaching 767 GW with a market share of around 90%. Among them, 210mm module capacity will reach 508 GW, a 68.14% increase from 2022, with a market share of 59.62%, indicating continued strong growth.

Bidding | In terms of bidding trends, projects clearly favor large-format modules. According to TrendForce, high-power modules are in demand among the nearly 129GW centralized procurement of PV modules announced by COEs and SOEs in 2022, with large-format modules dominating. Over 115GW of the bidding projects specifically require 182/210mm modules, accounting for 89.21% and indicating an increasing demand for large-format modules, a key component of the industry chain for reducing costs and increasing efficiency.

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