Global energy certification body DNV GL has developed an advanced tool that uses very granular data from the past 20 years to create the equivalent of 10,000 years of plausible realities – basically, a parallel universe generator that has 10,000 times more fidelity than was previously available. (No word yet on if the Browns win the Super Bowl in any of these new realities).
“With the growing penetration of wind and solar generation, system operators and renewable plant owners need reliable data to enable them to ensure grid stability and meet energy demands,” said Richard S. Barnes, Regional President, Energy North America for DNV GL. “This engine provides stakeholders in the renewables industry never-before available data that will accelerate the penetration of renewables on the grid and the energy transition.”
Until recently, the data renewable project developers, owners, system operators and utilities relied upon for modeling and project planning was limited to the past 10 to 20 years. DNV GL’s stochastic engine produces modeling inputs that owners, utilities, and system operaters can use to model scenarios based upon hundreds of thousands of years of representative wind and solar production that captures the full spectrum of possible weather conditions, load or prices.
The tool generates these modeling inputs by using historic weather, load and pricing conditions, preserving the daily, seasonal, and annual cycles of the original dataset, as well as other correlations such as wind speed, temperature or load. The large number of sequences, about 10,000 individual years of data, provides the full spectrum of possible scenarios to enable project owners, utilities and system operators to make more informed strategic decisions about financing, acquisitions, and planning. Because the outputs represent an equally realistic view of thousands of actual time series, this data can be used to answer a range of questions, from what type of technologies to invest in to mitigating price risk.