Video: Residential solar market takeaways from 2024 | Power Forward!

By Chris Crowell December 23, 2024

On the final Power Forward! of 2024, we close out the year and look ahead to solar business in 2025 the way we always do with David Dunlap, VP of product strategy with BayWa r.e.

Watch the full conversation above, skip to a timestamp below, or skim some highlights from our look back at 2024.

0:37 – Look back at key solar storylines from 2024
4:43 – Lasting takeaways from bankruptcies and financing shift?
7:17 – Expectations for residential solar market in 2025
13:21 – Product oversupply still an issue in 2025?
16:21 – How can/will the Trump administration change the IRA or ITC?
19:40 – Other tangible impacts on DG solar due to a change in administration?
20:58 – Final thoughts for solar installers in 2025

2024 residential solar trends

Dunlap: “The residential market was still soft – a continued slowdown plagued with quite a number of bankruptcies, both small and large, high-profile. A lot of disruption there. Interest rates didn’t recover as quickly as we hoped, there was a shift in the financing landscape accordingly.

“We saw a lot of high inventory levels, oversupply, kind of a strong brokerage market, which I think also created some disparities — manufacturers and distributors were trying to keep a forward look at here’s what’s coming, here’s the new technology, here’s what we can be excited about, and then there’s lower price clearance market and oversupply that also needs to be acknowledged and dealt with.

“I think people who played that part of the market probably did OK in terms of saving some money and utilizing some maybe aging inventory. But I think that we’re moving into the new year with some shifting sands there, and a little bit of cleaning up of that.

“There was a lot of emphasis this year on figuring out domestic content. I think that was probably the single largest mind share grab in the industry, and a lot of people spent time worrying about it or trying to figure it out even if it didn’t directly apply to them as the company or the official entity that would be utilizing the tax credit. That one took a lot of energy and focus and effort for folks.”

Positive outcomes of 2024

Dunlap: “I definitely felt throughout this year at trade events and in conversations with installers that more solar installers were looking to diversify their business. Looking at additional revenue streams, maybe adding service to their portfolio or going beyond only installing a solar generation plant in a building. Looking for ways to add value for the same customer and not have to duplicate customer acquisition costs.

“Yes, it added complexity and there’s a lot of people that are still struggling to figure that out — not a great year to tackle more nuance and more complexity — and yet I think that’s a really positive thing going forward.

“I also think that any of the policies or incentives that may be in jeopardy, part of the reason that they are in jeopardy is because of the cost effectiveness of solar energy. We have proven that we’ve reached or passed a cost parity with other more traditional forms of energy, and that’s a good thing for our industry and for adoption going forward.”

Takeaways from solar bankruptcies and TPO shift

Dunlap: “The continued slowdown and the bankruptcies is a mark of consolidation, and I think consolidation often does end up yielding more stability in our industry. I see those as an opportunity to strengthen.

“Those businesses that remain are here because they’ve navigated these changes, they’re more flexible, more agile, and they’re focused on creating value. That’s a good, stabilizing force in our industry. When there’s a sort of boundless opportunity for profit and growth, then you don’t necessarily have to run a smart business to be successful, and I think that that can lead to some challenges.”