Developer roundtable | Forecasting solar projects for 2026 and beyond
While at RE+ in September, I sat down with several companies involved with solar development to gauge their expectations for 2026 and beyond. We discussed such topics as the changes to the federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC), the rush to start projects to meet tax credit deadlines, trends in the industry, innovations and how businesses can remain successful while riding the solarcoaster. What follows is an edited transcript of those discussions.
How are developers adjusting to the changes of the ITC?
Seth Adams, senior VP of EPC, Standard Solar: The federal changes trickle down to our tax equity partners. And so, it doesn’t really matter what we interpret. It boils down to what our tax equity partners are saying. And what we found is most of our tax equity partners are looking at it in the most stringent way possible. So, for us, let’s make sure we know the pitfalls. We know what things could sneak up late stage that we need to be careful of.
Julia Bell, CIO, CleanCapital: The biggest thing that we are doing is getting to “beginning construction” on as many projects as we can to get within that safe harbor period. We’re also planning the next step, which is, once we learn more about what the field requirements are, how do we work within those? But it’s really a race to try and begin construction on as much as we can.
David Eisenbud, VP of orgination, DSD Renewables: Developers are responding to changes in federal tax credit structures by becoming increasingly strategic in the markets they choose to operate in, while removing unknowns and minimizing risk wherever possible. Rather than pursuing volume for its own sake, they are concentrating on target markets where their strengths give them a competitive edge. This means quality over quantity is the focus. By aligning projects with markets or regions where they can deliver certainty and strong performance, developers are able to continue adding to their project pipelines.
Nick Sangermano, president, GS Power Partners: In DG, we have a bunch of advantages when it comes to this. One is our project cycle is just so much shorter. We have really good velocity. … One of the thing we’ve been doing recently: As we look to partner with developers, we’ve been in a parallel process in EPC negotiations along the way. We’ve narrowed the time between getting development done, development complete, and actually breaking around. We’ve also seen a lean back towards simplicity in project design. We’ve had a lot of conversations recently around defaulting to fixed tilt. A lot more openness to what we know we can execute. Maybe the economic difference of doing a single-axis tracker, and a more complex design, that juice might not be worth the squeeze.
Eisenbud: The revised definition of “construction start” has added a lot of complexity for developers. It is extremely difficult to commence construction without full project entitlement visibility, which is needed to secure project financing. Attempting to move forward without this certainty only increases risk for developers that choose this pathway to receiving the safe harbor ITC. As a result, many developers, including DSD, prefer the more reliable safe harbor approach based on the percentage of spend to procure materials. This method reduces some complexity and minimizes unintended consequences that stem from prematurely advancing construction timelines.
What happens after the July 4, 2026, deadline to start construction to earn the tax credits? Are projects even workable after that?
Sabah Bayatli, president, OCI Energy: In 2028, I think the market will realize that the market fundamental is so strong, and it’s not changing. The demand is there. We are a believer that the data center demand will stay there, because as a country, we don’t have an option to send the data center to another country because of cybersecurity, because of national security. The market is so strong that even after the tax credit, that will actually not change how you are deploying solar, wind or gas. I think you will realize in 2028 you actually need every single source to come online as soon as possible, because your target as a country is you want to serve this load.
Adams: We’ve spent a lot of time looking at our business plan post ITC. We’re obviously trying to take advantage as much as we can within the ITC, but at the same time every project comes through, we’re looking at it from a perspective of, if it doesn’t [make the deadline], how do we solve it? How do we still build? For us, we’re trying to be much more proactive.
Bell: Absolutely. When we look at our financial models and just remove the tax equity line, there are still some projects that work, and a lot of projects that do not. However, I do think there’s going to be a lot of changes besides removing tax equity. I believe debt will play a factor. I do think we will see changes in equipment and labor pricing. Hopefully we’ll have an awesomely trained workforce that’s ready to go. Hopefully we’ll see some differences in equipment pricing as we get more factories up and running. I also think we’ll see a difference in power pricing. I’m hopeful that those other areas will help to compensate.
What segment do you see trending up in the next 12 months?
Adams: The community solar market, at least from our perspective. It’s really the same markets that we’ve been in – Illinois, the Northeast, New Jersey. We’re going to explore and look at how we can be much more competitive in the rooftop environment. I wouldn’t say there’s some secret market that’s out there that’s untapped, but things are opening up in the markets that we have been pursuing. For us, what’s next is New Mexico.
Bayatli: Any market that allows projects to be finished within a four-years window, I think that will be a good market. Unfortunately, there is not one now because of the interconnection delays. If you put the interconnection delay aside and assume you can build a project and bring it online as soon as possible, you can bring a project online within three years – even within two and a half years. Once you put [interconnection] back in your timeline, it will challenge it. This interconnection process/bill is basically the question here. … Late-stage projects, or a mid-stage project can meet these timelines. I think it’s hard for any market to bring brand new projects to meet those timelines.
Bell: We’ve been seeing and are expecting power pricing to rise. I do think that will help to compensate for the future loss of tax credits. I would expect in those areas, which are fairly across the board, to see a lot more growth and development. In some ways, I think those areas are based on just chasing load. Places that are getting a lot of AI growth, a lot of data center growth, we would expect to see a corresponding run up in power pricing and solar coming in to try and quickly get new electrons on the grid. Folks are needing to pay a higher marginal cost to get enough electrons on the grid to power everyone.
Eisenbud: One of the most active segments over the next 12 months will be companies with international parent corporations. These organizations are committed to meeting sustainability goals and won’t be deterred from looking at solutions like solar in a post-ITC world. In fact, many of these corporations are already facing business friction from delays in scaling sustainability initiatives, whether due to investor expectations, regulatory pressure, or customer demand. For this sector, renewable energy solutions remain a non-negotiable component of long-term strategy, continuing to drive solar adoption in the year ahead.
Which do you see trending down?
Adams: I don’t necessarily see anything trending down, but from our perspective, we were starting to dabble into some larger projects – the middle market of 25-30 MW, up to 80 to 100 MW. With the OBBB, and without programs like community solar, which obviously cap it, that is a little more challenging for us. We’re pausing a bit in that market, but we’re going to take a step back and see if there’s new, innovative approaches to tackle that work.
Bayatli: In the context of development, I really don’t see anything going down. I think people will focus completely on projects that can meet the finish line within those four years. So, I really don’t see it down. I see opposite. I think we will see complete focus … on the projects that we can bring online by 2029, and 2030. Offtakers are very motivated. … If you are an offtaker now, you want to lock in this PPA pricing, before people realize the market pricing is going up in the future.
Bell: Separate from this legislation, I do think that going forward we will increasingly see solar and storage pair together to just deal with the intermittency issues. I think piles of standalone solar are probably not going to be built at the same rate in 10 years. I think we’ll really see those as a combination to help balance out the grid.
What will be the next innovation that gives solar + storage the economic edge?
Bell: Right now, we are basically all lithium-ion, but there are other bankable technologies out there that I hope to see get integrated more. Personally, I’d love to see more long-term storage solutions, which would be really helpful for a swath of our country that has a sharp distinction in summer and winter. And I also think that as our projects age, we’ll start to come up with new innovations around how to repower them. Everyone has dabbled with the idea, but I haven’t really seen it take off. I think we will increasingly get better at how to recycle our interconnection or swap in and out equipment to optimize.
Eisenbud: Post-tax credits, the next wave of innovation will center on driving efficiencies and reducing soft costs. Faster permitting, streamlined construction, and optimized system sizing for interconnection speed will all help lower total build costs. Focusing efforts on more economic projects, like rooftop installations, as well as fostering relationships with repeat customers, will become increasingly important because these segments offer predictability and scalability. Developers will put a lot more focus on controlling whatever variables they can in order to continue pushing projects forward.
What actions can developers take to ensure success in 2026 and beyond?
Adams: Advocacy. We talked about the biggest challenges for any project: the interconnection, utility work, and permitting – it’s all regulatory things, right? So, advocate, talk about successes, talk about the positives. Understand what’s happening at the lowest level of government to the highest, because the lowest level is very meaningful. You look at delegates that are running at different levels of state government, they have a huge impact on what could happen. They are on state energy boards, and they have influences over the utility companies. Why are we not talking to these folks?
Eisenbud: To succeed in a post-ITC world, developers need to shift the conversation with customers from short-term savings to long-term value. While immediate cost reductions are appealing, the true power of solar lies in the lifetime savings it generates, which consistently outperforms the rising costs associated with grid-supplied power. Solar also acts as an insurance policy against risks outside of customers’ control, from supply disruptions to recovery from catastrophic weather events, which in some cases can cause utility rates to spike by 20% or more in just a few years.
